Short answer
Don’t rank traders by profit alone. Look for a high win rate over at least 30 resolved positions, profit in most months and a clear speciality. Then follow them with alerts, so you hear when they trade instead of checking their profiles.
Why the leaderboard isn’t enough
Polymarket’s leaderboard ranks traders by profit or volume over a period. That rewards one lucky week as much as a year of good calls, and it can’t tell you whether someone is skilled or just early.
of all Polymarket profits went to the top 1% of traders.
Source: Akey et al., CEPR Discussion Paper 21615So the best traders exist, and they are a small group. The work is finding them before you copy anything they do.
What to look for in a trader
Four things separate a good trader from a lucky one. You can check all of them on a public Polymarket profile, it just takes time.
- 1
Win rate on resolved bets
Above 60% over 30 or more resolved positions is a good sign. Fewer than 30 is too little to judge.
- 2
Profit in most months
Someone who made money in 8 of the last 12 months beats someone who made it all in one week.
- 3
Return, not just size
$20K made from $40K risked says more than $200K made from $10M.
- 4
A speciality
Most strong traders stick to one topic, like politics or weather. Check where their profit comes from.
The Nostra score rolls these into one number from 0 to 100 and re-scores about 1,750 traders every week.
How the score works
How to follow them
Polymarket has no follow button and no alerts for other traders. You can bookmark profiles and check them by hand, watch wallets with an on-chain tracker, or use an app that sends you alerts.
If you’d rather not pick traders one by one, smart groups are ready-made lists of 30 that update themselves, like the month’s top earners in politics.
Before you copy a trade
A good trader still loses often. Prices move after they buy, so you rarely get the same entry, and you don’t see when they hedge elsewhere. Treat their positions as a reason to look closer, not an instruction. Nostra doesn’t give financial advice.
Questions
Who is the best trader on Polymarket?
It depends on how you measure it. By the Nostra score, the top traders this week are on the leaderboard, re-scored every week.
Can I copy trades automatically?
Not with Nostra. It sends alerts and never places trades or holds money.
Is following traders on Polymarket free?
Profiles are public, so checking them is free. Nostra is free to download, and full access comes with a Nostra Pro subscription.
