Polymarket smart money: where the best traders are betting

We check who holds the biggest positions in about 120 live Polymarket markets. When 3 or more of the best-scored traders back the same side, it shows up here.

Updated 2 Nov 202627 live signals · 124 markets checkedHow it works
Live signals
27
Across 124 markets checked
Put in
$17.3M
By top traders, on their side
Top traders
38
Scoring 70 or more
Checked
Every 6h
Last check 12:05 UTC

Biggest calls right now

Largest live positions bought between 5¢ and 90¢

How we spot smart money

Same rule for every market, no hand-picking.

  1. 1Every 6 hours we look at about 120 markets: the 60 busiest events on Polymarket and 30 new ones.
  2. 2In each market we check the 20 biggest holders of every outcome against the Nostra score.
  3. 3A signal appears when 3 or more traders scoring 70 or more, within the top 10% we score, hold the same side with at least $5,000 each.
  4. 4It turns to Cooling when fewer than 3 still hold, and leaves the page when the market resolves or 7 days after it cools.

A signal shows what skilled traders hold, not what will happen. Big positions at 95¢ or more are often traders parking money on an outcome they see as nearly settled.

All signals

Live and cooling · biggest first · price is what they paid on average
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Economics · since 29 SepYes at 94¢ · 5 top traders · $5M Yesat 94¢ 5 $5M 5 of 5 Live Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?Crypto · since 31 OctYes at 99¢+ · 4 top traders · $2.3M Yesat 99¢+ 4 $2.3M 4 of 4 Live Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics · since 14 DecYes at 92¢ · 5 top traders · $2.3M Yesat 92¢ 5 $2.3M 5 of 5 Live Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Economics · since 24 OctNo at 94¢ · 3 top traders · $2M Noat 94¢ 3 $2M 3 of 3 Live Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics · since 5 AprNo at 82¢ · 7 top traders · $971K Noat 82¢ 7 $971K 7 of 7 Live Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other · since 5 MarNo at 95¢ · 3 top traders · $663K Noat 95¢ 3 $663K 3 of 3 Live Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Other · since 5 AprNo at 95¢ · 3 top traders · $652K Noat 95¢ 3 $652K 3 of 3 Live Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Other · since 1 JunYes at 98¢ · 5 top traders · $520K Yesat 98¢ 5 $520K 5 of 5 Live Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics · since 23 AugNo at 92¢ · 4 top traders · $454K Noat 92¢ 4 $454K 4 of 4 Live Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · since 27 OctYes at 99¢ · 3 top traders · $425K Yesat 99¢ 3 $425K 3 of 3 Live Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?Politics · since 2 OctNo at 99¢ · 3 top traders · $408K Noat 99¢ 3 $408K 3 of 3 Live Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Other · since 9 AugYes at 97¢ · 4 top traders · $295K Yesat 97¢ 4 $295K 4 of 4 Live Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics · since 20 JunNo at 97¢ · 4 top traders · $293K Noat 97¢ 4 $293K 4 of 4 Live US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Politics · since 20 AugNo at 98¢ · 5 top traders · $155K Noat 98¢ 5 $155K 5 of 5 Live Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Politics · since 30 SepNo at 99¢ · 3 top traders · $127K Noat 99¢ 3 $127K 3 of 3 Live Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Sports · since 8 MarYes at 56¢ · 4 top traders · $96K Yesat 56¢ 4 $96K 4 of 4 Live Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics · since 18 SepYes at 76¢ · 3 top traders · $93K Yesat 76¢ 3 $93K 3 of 3 Live US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics · since 19 SepNo at 87¢ · 3 top traders · $91K Noat 87¢ 3 $91K 3 of 3 Live US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics · since 18 SepYes at 93¢ · 3 top traders · $89K Yesat 93¢ 3 $89K 3 of 3 Live Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Other · since 20 SepNo at 97¢ · 3 top traders · $75K Noat 97¢ 3 $75K 3 of 3 Live Magic vs. Raptors · Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Sports · since 30 OctMagic at 48¢ · 3 top traders · $70K Magicat 48¢ 3 $70K 3 of 3 Live Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Sports · since 31 OctUnder at 46¢ · 4 top traders · $66K Underat 46¢ 4 $66K 4 of 4 Live Nuggets vs. Pelicans · Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Sports · since 28 OctNuggets at 48¢ · 3 top traders · $44K Nuggetsat 48¢ 3 $44K 3 of 3 Live Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics · since 3 SepYes at 92¢ · 3 top traders · $37K Yesat 92¢ 3 $37K 3 of 3 Live Pistons vs. Nets · Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Sports · since 30 OctNets at 48¢ · 3 top traders · $37K Netsat 48¢ 3 $37K 3 of 3 Live US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Politics · since 28 OctNo at 94¢ · 3 top traders · $30K Noat 94¢ 3 $30K 3 of 3 Live Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Sports · since 31 OctUnder at 49¢ · 3 top traders · $28K Underat 49¢ 3 $28K 3 of 3 Live Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Other · since 27 SepNo at 99¢+ · 3 top traders · $858K Noat 99¢+ 3 $858K 2 of 3 Cooling Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics · since 15 AprYes at 62¢ · 3 top traders · $345K Yesat 62¢ 3 $345K 0 of 3 Cooling Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics · since 10 AugNo at 91¢ · 3 top traders · $177K Noat 91¢ 3 $177K 2 of 3 Cooling Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Finance · since 20 SepNo at 99¢ · 3 top traders · $175K Noat 99¢ 3 $175K 2 of 3 Cooling Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · since 7 OctNo at 67¢ · 3 top traders · $69K Noat 67¢ 3 $69K 2 of 3 Cooling Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Finance · since 16 JulYes at 87¢ · 3 top traders · $33K Yesat 87¢ 3 $33K 1 of 3 Cooling

Questions

What is smart money on Polymarket?

Positions held by traders with a strong track record. Nostra scores Polymarket traders on win rate, return, months in profit, track record size and total profit, and treats a score of 70 or more as smart money.

How often is this page updated?

Markets are checked every 6 hours and this page refreshes after each check. The Nostra app can alert you when a new signal appears.

Should I copy these bets?

Nostra doesn’t give financial advice. A signal tells you where good traders are positioned so you can look closer, and they can be wrong.

Nostra for iPhone

Get an alert when smart money moves

Nostra checks these markets every 6 hours and can tell you the moment a new signal appears.

Download on the App StoreFree to download · iPhone