Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Where Polymarket’s best traders stand on this market. All 7 top traders we found among the biggest holders bet No.
Crowd vs smart money
Polymarket price at 15:19 UTC, 2 Nov
7 traders scoring 70+ hold No · $971K · avg entry 82¢
Top traders in this market
From the 40 biggest holders, checked every 6 hours
@TigerofthehoodNo at 83¢ · $103K77No83¢$103KMay6@KevindotoNo at 73¢ · $83K71No73¢$83KMay7@thoodrNo at 82¢ · $65K77No82¢$65KJulAbout this market
This market asks: “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” It ends on 1 Jan 2027 and has about $76.6M traded on it. It settles under the exact rules on Polymarket. Read them there before you trade, because the wording decides edge cases.
Nostra doesn’t host or settle this market. Prices and holders come from Polymarket’s public data.
More smart money signals
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics · since 14 DecYes at 92¢ · 5 top traders · $2.3M
Yesat 92¢
5
$2.3M
5 of 5
Live
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics · since 23 AugNo at 92¢ · 4 top traders · $454K
Noat 92¢
4
$454K
4 of 4
Live
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · since 27 OctYes at 99¢ · 3 top traders · $425K
Yesat 99¢
3
$425K
3 of 3
Live
Questions
What are the odds for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”?
Polymarket’s crowd put No at about 83% on 2 Nov 2026. The live price is on Polymarket.
What are top traders betting?
All 7 traders scoring 70 or more among the biggest holders hold No, about $971K between them, at an average of 82¢.
Is this a prediction?
No. It shows where skilled traders are positioned. They can be wrong, and Nostra doesn’t give financial advice.
Keep exploring
More from Nostra: rankings by topic, trader profiles, smart groups and plain-English guides.
Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
Top traders
Profiles for the 500 best-scored Polymarket traders, with stats and recent calls.
Smart groups
20 self-updating groups, from The Nostra 30 to Weather Wizards.
Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
How the score works
What goes into a Nostra score, how often it updates and where it falls short.
Guides
Plain-English guides to finding and following traders on Polymarket.
Nostra for iPhone
Get an alert when smart money moves
Follow markets and traders in Nostra and hear about new signals as they appear.
Free to download · iPhone