How the Nostra score works
Every scored trader gets a number from 0 to 100 that sums up their Polymarket track record. Here is exactly what goes into it, how often it changes and what it can’t tell you.
Short answer
The Nostra score is a 0–100 rating of a Polymarket trader’s track record. It weighs win rate (35%), return on money staked (25%), months finished in profit (20%), how many resolved positions it rests on (10%) and total realised profit (10%). Every leaderboard trader is re-scored weekly.
- 0–100
- Score range
- 5
- Inputs, fixed weights
- 7 days
- Between re-scores
- 1,750
- Traders scored, 2 Nov
What goes into it
Five inputs, all from public Polymarket data. Each is turned into a 0–1 value, then weighted.
- 35%40% or less → 0
Win rate
Share of resolved positions that made money. We use a cautious estimate (the low end of a 95% Wilson interval), so 9 wins from 10 doesn’t outrank 650 from 1,000.
80% or more → full marks - 25%−50% or worse → 0
Return on money staked
Realised profit divided by what they paid for their resolved positions.
+100% or better → full marks - 20%Straight share
Consistency
Months that finished in profit, out of the months they traded, over the last 12.
8 of 10 months → 0.8 - 10%10 → 0, 500 → full marks
Track record size
How many resolved positions the score rests on. Under 10 earns nothing here.
on a log scale - 10%$1 → 0, $1M → full marks
Profit scale
Total realised profit, so a lucky $50 streak doesn’t rank with $50,000.
on a log scale
score = 100 × (0.35 win rate + 0.25 return + 0.20 consistency + 0.10 size + 0.10 profit), rounded
What a score means
Scores are spread across everyone we score, so a number always maps to a rank.
- 81+
- Top 1%
- 78+
- Top 3%
- 74+
- Top 5%
- 67+
- Top 10%
- 54+
- Top 25%
Cut-offs across 1,750 scored traders on 2 Nov 2026. They are worked out again after every scoring run, and the leaderboards use the same ranks.
Worked example
Illustrative numbers, not a real trader.
Example trader
67 Top 10%| Input | Their numbers | Value | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 144 of 200 won (72%), cautious estimate 65% | 0.64 | 22.2 |
| Return | +25% on money staked | 0.50 | 12.5 |
| Consistency | 9 of 11 active months up | 0.82 | 16.4 |
| Track record | 200 resolved positions | 0.77 | 7.7 |
| Profit | $48,000 realised | 0.78 | 7.8 |
| Score | 66.6, rounded | 67 |
How often it updates
Every week
Everyone in the pool, the traders on Polymarket’s monthly and all-time leaderboards across 10 topics, is re-scored every 7 days.
When a trader is opened
If a score is more than 7 days old when someone views that trader in the app, it is worked out again on the spot.
Ranks straight after
Percentiles, cut-offs and leaderboards are recalculated after every scoring run.
What it can’t tell you
Read it as a summary of the past, not a tip.
- It describes past results. A high score doesn’t mean the next trade will win.
- It reads the most recent 500 resolved positions, not a trader’s whole history.
- Positions still open don’t count until their market resolves.
- It sees one wallet at a time. Someone trading from two wallets gets two scores.
- A score can be up to 7 days old.
Questions
Who gets a Nostra score?
Traders on Polymarket’s monthly and all-time leaderboards in 10 topics, plus anyone a Nostra user opens in the app. That is 1,750 traders today, and it grows with use.
Why isn’t win rate the whole score?
A trader who only buys 95-cent favourites can win almost every time and still make very little. Return, consistency and size balance that out.
Can a trader pay for a better score?
No. Scores come only from public Polymarket data, worked out the same way for everyone.
Is the score financial advice?
No. It summarises past results to help you decide who to watch. Nostra doesn’t hold money or place trades.
Keep exploring
More from Nostra: rankings by topic, trader profiles, smart groups and plain-English guides.
Leaderboards by topic
Top traders in Politics, Sports, Crypto and 7 more topics, re-scored every week.
Top traders
Profiles for the 500 best-scored Polymarket traders, with stats and recent calls.
Smart groups
20 self-updating groups, from The Nostra 30 to Weather Wizards.
Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
How the score works
What goes into a Nostra score, how often it updates and where it falls short.
Guides
Plain-English guides to finding and following traders on Polymarket.
Nostra for iPhone
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