What is consensus on Polymarket?
The share of top traders in a market who back the same side.
Definition
Consensus is how much the top traders in a market agree: the share of them holding the same side, such as 6 of 7 on No.
In more detail
The price tells you what the whole crowd thinks. Consensus looks only at traders with a strong record and asks whether they lean the same way.
Strong consensus is a reason to look closer, not proof. A group of good traders can all be wrong on the same market, and some may be hedged elsewhere.
How Nostra uses it
Nostra’s smart money signals need 3 or more traders scoring 70 or more on the same side, each with at least $5,000 in.
See live smart moneyRelated terms
Keep exploring
More from Nostra: rankings by topic, trader profiles, smart groups and plain-English guides.
Polymarket glossary
All 20 terms, from odds and resolution to smart money.
Top traders
Profiles for the 500 best-scored Polymarket traders, with stats and recent calls.
Smart groups
20 self-updating groups, from The Nostra 30 to Weather Wizards.
Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
How the score works
What goes into a Nostra score, how often it updates and where it falls short.
Guides
Plain-English guides to finding and following traders on Polymarket.
Nostra for iPhone
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