What is smart money on Polymarket?
Positions held by traders with a strong track record.
Definition
Smart money is money placed by traders with a proven record. On Polymarket, when several of them back the same side of a market, that side is said to have the smart money.
In more detail
Polymarket prices show what the whole crowd thinks. Smart money looks at a smaller group: traders who have been right more often than not, over many markets and months. Their positions can differ from the price, which is what makes them worth a look.
It isn’t a prediction. Skilled traders still lose, and big positions near 95¢ often mean someone is parking money on an outcome they see as settled.
Example
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No at 82¢ · $971K7 top traders
On 29 October, Nostra found 7 traders scoring 70 or more holding No on this market. They had paid 82¢ a share on average, $971K between them. That is a smart money signal.
How Nostra uses it
Nostra checks the biggest holders of about 120 busy markets every 6 hours. When 3 or more traders scoring 70 or more hold the same side with at least $5,000 each, it shows up as a signal in the app and on the smart money page.
See live smart moneyRelated terms
Keep exploring
More from Nostra: rankings by topic, trader profiles, smart groups and plain-English guides.
Polymarket glossary
All 20 terms, from odds and resolution to smart money.
Top traders
Profiles for the 500 best-scored Polymarket traders, with stats and recent calls.
Smart groups
20 self-updating groups, from The Nostra 30 to Weather Wizards.
Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
How the score works
What goes into a Nostra score, how often it updates and where it falls short.
Guides
Plain-English guides to finding and following traders on Polymarket.
Nostra for iPhone
See Polymarket’s smart money on your iPhone
Nostra scores about 1,750 traders every week and lets you know when the best of them make a move.
Free to download · iPhone