What is win rate on Polymarket?
The share of a trader’s resolved positions that made money.
Definition
Win rate is the share of a trader’s resolved positions that made money. A trader who won 21 of 30 has a 70% win rate.
In more detail
It needs enough positions to mean anything. Under 30 resolved positions, a few lucky calls can make anyone look good.
It also leaves out size. Someone who wins small often and loses big now and then can have a high win rate and still lose money, so read it next to P/L and return.
How Nostra uses it
Win rate is the biggest input to the Nostra score, at 35%, and only counts resolved positions.
How the score worksRelated terms
Keep exploring
More from Nostra: rankings by topic, trader profiles, smart groups and plain-English guides.
Polymarket glossary
All 20 terms, from odds and resolution to smart money.
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Smart groups
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Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
How the score works
What goes into a Nostra score, how often it updates and where it falls short.
Guides
Plain-English guides to finding and following traders on Polymarket.
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