How do odds work on Polymarket?
The price of a share, read as the crowd’s chance of that outcome.
Definition
On Polymarket the odds are the share price. A Yes share at 64¢ means the market puts the chance of Yes at about 64%.
In more detail
Shares pay $1 if their outcome happens, so the price works as a probability. Prices move as people buy and sell, so the odds change all the time.
The odds are the crowd’s view, not a fact. Traders make money by buying when they think the price is wrong.
Example
Yes is at 64¢. If you buy and Yes happens, each share pays $1, so you make 36¢ a share. If No happens, you lose the 64¢.
How Nostra uses it
Nostra shows the price top traders paid next to today’s price on every signal.
See live smart moneyRelated terms
Keep exploring
More from Nostra: rankings by topic, trader profiles, smart groups and plain-English guides.
Polymarket glossary
All 20 terms, from odds and resolution to smart money.
Top traders
Profiles for the 500 best-scored Polymarket traders, with stats and recent calls.
Smart groups
20 self-updating groups, from The Nostra 30 to Weather Wizards.
Smart money
Markets where 3 or more top-scored traders back the same side, checked every 6 hours.
How the score works
What goes into a Nostra score, how often it updates and where it falls short.
Guides
Plain-English guides to finding and following traders on Polymarket.
Nostra for iPhone
See Polymarket’s smart money on your iPhone
Nostra scores about 1,750 traders every week and lets you know when the best of them make a move.
Free to download · iPhone